Modelling parasite evolution under increasing temperatures in vector-borne disease

Concern for the impact of climate change on the spread and severity of infectious disease is widespread. For long-term management of global health, we need to consider parasite evolution under such environmentalchange. Vector-borne diseases are likely to be particularly affected bychanging climates due to the sensitivity of ectothermic vectors to temperature.Here, I present a work-in-progress of an age-structured SI model to represent the ecological dynamics of a general vector-borne disease, incorporating temperature-dependent parameters. Using sequential invasion analyses, the evolutionary trajectory of within-host parasite replication rate, and thus virulence, can then be predicted under a specified heating regime.